Agenda item

To consider the attached report of Director, Education (Tameside and Stockport).

Consideration was given to a report Director of Education (Tameside and Stockport), which outlined the High Needs Deficit Recovery position for the financial year 2021-22.  The report also provided Members with a revised view on expected growth across SEND in Tameside, plans in place to address this and additional development proposals.

Member’s attention was drawn to the growth in Education Health Care Plans (EHCPs) in Tameside over the next 10 years.  It was highlighted that the number of EHCPs had been rising steadily since 2017 and had now more than doubled, with 1960 EHCPs currently maintained.  As a result, it was explained that Tameside is now more in line with its statistical neighbours, with EHCPs representing approximately 3.64% of the population.

Whilst it was acknowledged that this recent growth was necessary, the significant demands this had placed on specialist providers and resource bases across Tameside was highlighted.  It was explained that this had placed increased pressure on placements for children with EHCPs, particularly across the specialist sector, where all schools and resource bases were currently oversubscribed.

Members were made aware that recently acquired data demonstrated the ongoing imperative to create additional SEND provision within Tameside in order to be able to effectively accommodate those most vulnerable learner in line with future growth.  It was stated that a previous over-reliance on out of borough provision had undoubtedly contributed to budget pressures and, therefore, there needed to be a more strategic approach taken to planning provision, which was driven by need, investing capital funding towards the creation of more local places. 

It was acknowledged that any changes to an established pattern of provision would be a long term process, given the importance of continuity for children and young people.  It was also emphasised that parents would be a key partner in these changes, along with schools’ Forum, who would be continually consulted and engaged throughout these developments.

The comprehensive SEND Sufficiency Strategy 2021-2031 was provided for Members.  It was outlined that this built on key pieces of work, such as the SEND Forward plan 2019-22, which had been implemented over the past 3 years.  Members were also made aware that this had been written with the benefit of newly acquired data and intelligence, which had been commissioned through Edge Analytics. 

Anticipated key areas of growth were outlined for Members of the Forum, including:

·   1089 new EHCP places projected over a 10-year period

·      2021-22 and 2022-23 projected to be the largest 2 years of growth with 179 (21-22) and 181 (22-23) places projected. Growth figures then decrease year on year. 

·      EHCP places for pupils in years 12-14 projected to more than double in 10 years

·      Years 7-11 projected to nearly double in 10 years  across both specialist and mainstream sectors

·      Years R-6 projected to increase by 29% in 10 years

Members were informed that these projections had been provided by Edge Analytics.  However, they were lower than the growth seen in real time.  Whilst this discrepancy was unclear, it was acknowledged that the currently elevated growth may be attributable to Covid factors.

It was stated that the main area of growth was in secondary school pupils, where numbers were projected to increase by 82% over the 10 year period, with numbers in mainstream schools more than doubling.  Whilst this growth was clearly significant, it was also acknowledged that this represented some necessary recalibration of EHCPs across the sectors. 

Members were made aware that EHCPs within specialist settings in Tameside represented 44% of the population, as opposed to 36% nationally.  It was noted that this statistic set Tameside apart from national, GM and statistical neighbours, where the majority of EHCP students were educated within mainstream settings.  It was outlined that historic under-assessment in Tameside had contributed to uneven distribution across sectors.  However, the data going forwards indicated that, as EHCP % representation comes into line with statistical neighbours, so too should the distribution of EHCPs across sectors.

It was highlighted that, across the specialist sector, whilst not in line with mainstream, there was 60% growth in years R-14 projected.  Growth amongst primary age children was predicted to be 29%, and growth between Y12-14 would increase by 127%.

It was noted that the fastest growing areas of need within SEND were in relation to Social, Emotional and mental Health Needs (SEMH), where growth of 138.9% was anticipated across all age ranges.  With this in mind, it was projected that growth in EHCPs numbers in relation to SEMH in mainstream settings would rise by 130%.  Similarly, this was expected to rise by 130% in specialist settings.  This growth in both mainstream and specialist settings was projected to be particularly high in Years 7-14 with 220% growth expected for mainstream and 156% for specialist provision.

Communication Interaction difficulties were highlighted as the next largest area of growth, which was anticipated to be 70.7% across all ages in mainstream settings and 54.6% across specialist provision.  Again, this growth was projected to be significantly higher across Years 7-14.

Members were informed that the in-year deficit had increased from £1.137m to £2.393m, an increase of £1.256m as a result of an increase in the numbers of EHCP’s, which were significantly beyond anticipated growth levels.

Members were made aware that this growth in EHCP numbers represented a significant financial risk to the Local Authority with over reliance on out of borough provision being noted as a factor contributing to current budget pressures.  With this in mind, the need for more local specialist provision in Tameside was again highlighted.  Members attention was again drawn to the SEND Sufficiency Strategy, which contained a range of proposals to suggest ways in which these needs could be met in order to mitigate the risk of out of borough placement.  The following strategies and actions were outlined for members:

·         An escalation of the resource base development programme.   This aims to add an additional 8 resource bases across both primary and secondary over the next two years, adding approximately 80 additional specialist places. In order to meet the anticipated demand, it may be deemed necessary to aim instead for an additional 12 resource bases over the next 3 years, with a plan to develop additional post 16 resource base provision, to accommodate up to 30 specialist learners (adding 150 specialist places).

·         Continue with the move to a new Hawthorns building creating a 220 place school (effectively an additional 50 specialist primary places for children with CI needs).

·         Consider options, which would retain the original Hawthorns building as an additional specialist setting for primary-aged learners.

·         Work with Thomas Ashton School to consider its role in supporting the increasing numbers of learners with SEMH difficulties.

·         Explore options for the development of a Specialist Free School.

·         Working in partnership with schools, invest and develop support to mainstream settings to promote ongoing inclusion of their SEND students.

Concern had been raised in relation to the projected figures for growth, particularly as it had been noted in previous meetings that growth had seen a period of slowing down.  However, it was stated that these projections were a true reflection of the current situation and may actually be a more conservative estimate than may be the case.

A question was asked in relation to projected early years (pre-Reception) numbers.  However, it was explained that the data, which had been provided by Edge Analytics related to children from Reception age only.  It was acknowledged that there were limitations to the current data and this was highlighted as one of the limitations.  However, it was suggested that this would be something, which could be picked up in Early Years Working Groups’ discussions.

Discussion ensued with regard to the movement of children with EHCPs from mainstream to specialist provision and the need to ensure that those children with EHCPs, whose needs could be effectively met in mainstream settings, continue to access mainstream provision, where appropriate.  It was also noted that the move to specialist provision should be continually monitored and that, if these needs, over time, could be managed in a mainstream setting, then these children could transfer back into mainstream provision, where appropriate. 

In response to the discussion, it was acknowledged that children’s circumstances and needs could change over time.  It was also stated that it would only be the most complex needs, which required enhanced support, who would be considered for resource base provision or specialist settings and the strength of the resource base model in meeting the needs of these children was highlighted as providing valuable opportunities for integration.

The rapid growth in SEMH needs was discussed and the need to work in partnership with schools with regard to trying to keep children in these settings, where appropriate.  However, the need for greater staff development and appropriate resources was highlighted, in order to be able to effectively meet the needs of these children and young people within mainstream settings.  With this in mind, the need to ensure that schools would be well prepared in order to be able to accommodate this growth was emphasised.

RESOLVED

That the contents of the report be noted and supported